Record warm summers cause extreme ice melt in Greenland: an international team of scientists, led by Dr Edward Hanna at the University of Sheffield, has found that recent warm summers have caused the most extreme Greenland ice melting in 50 years. The new research provides further evidence of a key impact of global warming and helps scientists place recent satellite observations of Greenland´s shrinking ice mass in a longer-term climatic context. Findings are published in the 15 January 2008 issue of Journal of Climate.
Cleaning up Kinshasa by introducing biogas
The people of Kinshasa, Africa's second largest and fastest growing megapolis, used to proudly call their city Kin la Belle ('Kinshasa the Beautiful') but after years of neglect, they now disparage it as Kin la Poubelle ('Kinshasa the Dustbin').
But the confluence of a series of factors has opened new perspectives. Energy is becoming increasingly expensive in this strange city, where urban and rural logics have become intertwined. As rural populations become urbanites, they bring their habits from the country-side, and, instead of abandoning them in favor of 'modern' urban practises, they create their own village in the city. This so-called 'villagisation' of one of the world's mega-cities, has astonished many an anthropologist. Urban farming, tribal affiliations, magic, sorcery, traditional healing methods and rural household economics have become inseparable from the hip modernity that is typical of Kinshasa.
This villagisation also implies that millions of Kinois in the slums keep using fuel wood for their daily heating and cooking needs. All trees within a radius of dozens of kilometres of Kinshasa have been cut, and the expansion continues as Congo's capital grows. The result of this expansion and the lack of both electricity in the slums and of cleaner fuels (like kerosene and LPG, which are expensive) is a dramatic scarcity of fuel. Almost all large and rapidly growing cities in the huge country are facing the same problems as "Kin La Poubelle".
Writing in the Belgian Embassy's sectoral publication entitled Eau, Energie, Environnement et Agriculture professor Monzambe Mapunzu of the Department of Agronomic and Veterinary Sciences of the Université Pédagogique Nationale explains that the production of biogas from municipal solid waste can go a long way in cleaning up Congo's towns while providing a clean source of energy. Moreover, the technology could boost rural populations' access to energy and help motorise farmers' activities, resulting in higher productivity. Biogas production can also be integrated in soil enhancement strategies. Lack of clean and durable energy supplies is a major factor of underdevelopment and poverty amongst these populations:
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: municipal solid waste :: public health :: energy scarcity :: fuel wood :: biogas :: rural development :: electrification :: Kinshasa :: Congo ::
Monzambe says that, despite Congo's large potential energy reserves (hydropower, biofuels), the level of electrification in the country is one of the lowest on the African continent: barely 6%. Biogas offers a relatively simple, proven and reliable technology to tackle both the waste management problem in the cities as well as the lack of modern energy in the country-side.
Energy and rural development
"The diagnosis of rural development points to a deep poverty amongst populations. Decentralised and autonomous energy production, relying on the biomethanation of agricultural residues and urban solid waste can solve different problems at once: biogas can replace the use of fuel wood especially in zones that suffer under erosion, desertification and deforestation, as is the case in the peripheries around large cities; biogas can facilitate the development of small-scale agricultural motorisation (pumps, refrigerators, harvesting, transporting of crops, etc...) and can contribute to increasing agricultural productivity; biogas production can increase the fertility of soils by utilising the residues from the methanised organic matter, which make for an excellent green fertiliser".
Biogas production in the cities can help mitigate the health hazards arising from accumulating waste. During the biomethanation of waste, the anaerobic digester eliminates more than 90% of the pathogenic bacteria contained in waste, and between 90 and 100% of intestinal worms and between 35 and 100% of their eggs. In short, anaerobic digestion has the potential to reduce organic, microbial, olfactive and aesthetic pollution.
Waste management in the cities
With its urbanisation level of 30% and an average population growth of 3.3% per annum (the largest in Africa), its growing rural exodus as a result of numerous conflicts since 1963 until this day, the urban zones of Congo are becoming rapidly overpopulated. These social and demographic developments occur without any clear planning or coherent policy framework: the State doesn't provide appropriate housing for the swelling populations, new quarters are being established without any urban planning and in disregard of the most basic public health considerations (sewers, public latrines, green spaces and facilities for young people, energy and water infrastructures, roads, etc...).
According to professor Monzambe, there is a clear correlation between the demographic explosion in Congo, the production of waste and the degradation of the environment. This comes down to the basic observation that rising consumption results in growing waste streams that require appropriate management strategies. Monzambe calculated that each individual produces around 0.5kg of faecal waste, 1kg of municipal waste and 194 liters of liquid waste per day. 8 million Kinois therefor produce 4000 tons of human waste, 8000 tons of municipal solid waste and 1.552 billion liters of waste water. This huge and unmanaged stream of waste pollutes large pockets of the city, even markets where food is sold, and transforms the many canals and streams into open sewers.
Today in Kinshasa, waste is not only undermanaged but left to decompose in the open air way too long. This has become the prime cause of the resurgence of diseases like cholera and typhoid, and of respiratory diseases. Biogas production again seems to be the most appropriate technology to deal with the problem, certainly given its potential to supply energy, a scarce resource in the cities.
Translated by Laurens Rademakers
More information:
Le Potential, via AllAfrica: Congo-Kinshasa: Développement durable, l'industrie du biogaz, une réponse à la pollution des déchets dans les villes congolaises - May 2, 2007 (original article).
Article continues
Click to open slide-show on 'Kin la Poubelle'
The waste problem in the city of 8 million has become so dramatic that it even became a topic during the recent presidential elections. Wars, corruption, dictators who only mind their own clan, the collapse of social and municipal services, lack of planning and stubborn habits of the city's swelling population have led to a management challenge so immense and smelly that nobody has the courage to tackle it. Meanwhile, the accumulating waste has become a health hazard responsible for the return of water-borne diseases like typhoid and cholera, for respiratory diseases and for water pollution.But the confluence of a series of factors has opened new perspectives. Energy is becoming increasingly expensive in this strange city, where urban and rural logics have become intertwined. As rural populations become urbanites, they bring their habits from the country-side, and, instead of abandoning them in favor of 'modern' urban practises, they create their own village in the city. This so-called 'villagisation' of one of the world's mega-cities, has astonished many an anthropologist. Urban farming, tribal affiliations, magic, sorcery, traditional healing methods and rural household economics have become inseparable from the hip modernity that is typical of Kinshasa.
This villagisation also implies that millions of Kinois in the slums keep using fuel wood for their daily heating and cooking needs. All trees within a radius of dozens of kilometres of Kinshasa have been cut, and the expansion continues as Congo's capital grows. The result of this expansion and the lack of both electricity in the slums and of cleaner fuels (like kerosene and LPG, which are expensive) is a dramatic scarcity of fuel. Almost all large and rapidly growing cities in the huge country are facing the same problems as "Kin La Poubelle".
Writing in the Belgian Embassy's sectoral publication entitled Eau, Energie, Environnement et Agriculture professor Monzambe Mapunzu of the Department of Agronomic and Veterinary Sciences of the Université Pédagogique Nationale explains that the production of biogas from municipal solid waste can go a long way in cleaning up Congo's towns while providing a clean source of energy. Moreover, the technology could boost rural populations' access to energy and help motorise farmers' activities, resulting in higher productivity. Biogas production can also be integrated in soil enhancement strategies. Lack of clean and durable energy supplies is a major factor of underdevelopment and poverty amongst these populations:
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: municipal solid waste :: public health :: energy scarcity :: fuel wood :: biogas :: rural development :: electrification :: Kinshasa :: Congo ::Monzambe says that, despite Congo's large potential energy reserves (hydropower, biofuels), the level of electrification in the country is one of the lowest on the African continent: barely 6%. Biogas offers a relatively simple, proven and reliable technology to tackle both the waste management problem in the cities as well as the lack of modern energy in the country-side.
Energy and rural development
"The diagnosis of rural development points to a deep poverty amongst populations. Decentralised and autonomous energy production, relying on the biomethanation of agricultural residues and urban solid waste can solve different problems at once: biogas can replace the use of fuel wood especially in zones that suffer under erosion, desertification and deforestation, as is the case in the peripheries around large cities; biogas can facilitate the development of small-scale agricultural motorisation (pumps, refrigerators, harvesting, transporting of crops, etc...) and can contribute to increasing agricultural productivity; biogas production can increase the fertility of soils by utilising the residues from the methanised organic matter, which make for an excellent green fertiliser".
Biogas production in the cities can help mitigate the health hazards arising from accumulating waste. During the biomethanation of waste, the anaerobic digester eliminates more than 90% of the pathogenic bacteria contained in waste, and between 90 and 100% of intestinal worms and between 35 and 100% of their eggs. In short, anaerobic digestion has the potential to reduce organic, microbial, olfactive and aesthetic pollution.
Waste management in the cities
With its urbanisation level of 30% and an average population growth of 3.3% per annum (the largest in Africa), its growing rural exodus as a result of numerous conflicts since 1963 until this day, the urban zones of Congo are becoming rapidly overpopulated. These social and demographic developments occur without any clear planning or coherent policy framework: the State doesn't provide appropriate housing for the swelling populations, new quarters are being established without any urban planning and in disregard of the most basic public health considerations (sewers, public latrines, green spaces and facilities for young people, energy and water infrastructures, roads, etc...).
According to professor Monzambe, there is a clear correlation between the demographic explosion in Congo, the production of waste and the degradation of the environment. This comes down to the basic observation that rising consumption results in growing waste streams that require appropriate management strategies. Monzambe calculated that each individual produces around 0.5kg of faecal waste, 1kg of municipal waste and 194 liters of liquid waste per day. 8 million Kinois therefor produce 4000 tons of human waste, 8000 tons of municipal solid waste and 1.552 billion liters of waste water. This huge and unmanaged stream of waste pollutes large pockets of the city, even markets where food is sold, and transforms the many canals and streams into open sewers.
Today in Kinshasa, waste is not only undermanaged but left to decompose in the open air way too long. This has become the prime cause of the resurgence of diseases like cholera and typhoid, and of respiratory diseases. Biogas production again seems to be the most appropriate technology to deal with the problem, certainly given its potential to supply energy, a scarce resource in the cities.
Translated by Laurens Rademakers
More information:
Le Potential, via AllAfrica: Congo-Kinshasa: Développement durable, l'industrie du biogaz, une réponse à la pollution des déchets dans les villes congolaises - May 2, 2007 (original article).
Article continues
posted by Biopact team at 2:15 PM
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
IEA study: large potential for biomass trade, under different scenarios
Drawing on discussions amongst the world's leading energy and bioenergy experts, the report made by researchers from the Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland) created several scenarios that show different pathways in which this potential may be brought to market by 2020. Each pathway, presented as a prototypical scenario, has different economic, environmental, social and political effects that determine how large, commercially viable and sustainable biomass trade will be. The four scenarios were titled the 'Prosperous Green World', the 'Rich Global Village', the 'Rich Local Village' and 'Small is Beautiful'. No doubt, readers will prefer one alternative over the other (let us know which one you think is most realistic).
Technical sustainable potential
All scenarios start from the basic assessments of the technical potential for biomass and biofuel production (this potential is 'value free' and not determined by economics or politics). Despite the current minor role of bioenergy in the world energy supply, biomass has, in the long run, potential to become a much more important source of energy.
Table 1 (click to enlarge) gives a summary of this potential in the light of the latest studies, per biomass category and shows the main assumptions made in the determination of the potentials. The researchers confirm that Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe as well as Oceania and East and North-East Asia have the most promising potentiality to become important biomass producers in the long run (see earlier post).
Trade in its infancy
The market is set to grow rapidly, though, and can go many ways. This is so because of the complexity of this emerging market. Bioenergy production and trade integrates a large series of economic, social, and environmental factors that are in turn dependent on national and international policies, trade rules, subsidies, taxes, scientific and technological developments as well as on the dynamics of energy and carbon markets.
Four scenarios for biomass trade
A total of 81 separate 'driving forces' and 150 questions were ideated by the working group and joined in clusters (in order of importance: economy, policies, environment, technology, production, trade, communication, consumers/suppliers, entrepreneurs and social). These factors were then given a weight of significance, and taken as a starting point to design the dimensions of the four scenarios (diagram, click to enlarge).
Per scenario, a basic SWOT analysis was carried out, showing its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Even though all scenarios (including those of the Finnish group) foresee a considerable rise in global biomass trade by 2020, the SWOT analysis determines how large, how commercially viable and how sustainable such international biomass trade will be.
Scenario 1: the 'Prosperous Green World'
In the year 2020 the consumption and international trading of biomass has increased remarkably compared to the current situation. Strong and global green regulation has been the main reason for the past development. All the cheap traditional biomass resources are in use and new resources, e.g. dedicated crops, are being developed and utilised. Relatively free market conditions of biomass have stimulating new innovations regarding the production and utilisation of dedicated energy crops.
A transparent certification system of biomass production and trade is in use and it is based on international agreements. The second generation technologies are widely in use in the production of synthetic biofuels. Because of growing utilisation of the energy crops, countries with large biomass resources such as Russia, Indonesia, Brazil etc. have now a more important role as biomass producers than in the beginning of the 21st century. It is unclear if trade between countries will happen on an important scale or will it be limited only to the surplus of biomass that can not be consumed locally. Big consumers of biomass are located in Western Europe, South-East Asia and America. E.g. Brazil has a large surplus of crops and woody biomass and the country is probably taking part in global biomass trade as an exporter. China has invested in biomass production by planting forests. Sustainable development puts more emphasis on the education system and people now more aware of sustainability issues.
An increased worry about the overexploitation and unsustainable utilisation of biomass resources has been taken into account in international agreements on free trade and mitigating the climate change. Several markets, other than energy, have developed and benefited from the sustainable utilisation of biomass. For example, new markets for farmers and forest industry have opened up globally. Most of the forest industry’s mills can be now considered as biorefineries refining biomass into traditional forest products, but also liquid biofuels and chemicals.
Also the global employment situation in general has begun to look brighter and a myriad of new jobs exists especially in the production of biomass in developing countries. This has improved the economical situation in many poor countries.
The driving forces and development route of biomass market during the years 2006-2020 show the following features: During the period between 2006 and 2020, there had been a growing need for a certification system increasing the number of cases of unsustainable production of biomass, but it is not known whether the systems voluntary or obligatory. In other words, the path towards the certification system of biomass for energy remained unclear. In addition to the need of a certification system, sustainable development has been one of the key drivers of the biomass market. Also the climate change and a concern about the environment have had an influence on the development of biomass exploitation in energy production.
International agreements and long-term policies have kept the biomass production, utilisation and trade as a global issue. Additionally, incentives and obligations, technological and organisational improvements and innovations have been important driving forces for the development.
Consumers have played the most important role in the development of the biomass market. Therefore, the public opinion has been an essential factor affecting the emergence of the global market of biomass. Communication towards consumers has been in a critical role to enhance the trade of biomass and its utilisation. With a strong public and political support it is possible to plan for future success. In addition, specific education and dissemination related to bioenergy issues has also had an important role.
The year 2013 was identified as an intermediate stopping point. If “Green prosperous” comes true, certain things need to happen by then. There can not be any surprises and the development can be called “no-surprise strengthening of present trends”. In addition, investing in new green projects has to be identified as an opportunity for economic profit. Also, biomass has to be accepted as a basematerial that is readily available with a high security of supply. If things develop according to the description of the green prosperous scenario, all sectors of bioenergy of business will develop positively.
Scenario 2: the 'Rich Global Village'
In spite of an economically orientated world, sustainability is a part of the business, but not dominating. The EU is the global leader in promoting bioenergy. The massively expanding biomass market in the EU is led by public utilities. The forest biomass in the EU has been certified as sustainable and the utilisation of forest resources has increased remarkably since the beginning of the 21st century. People are keeping themselves away from too strict green thinking because it might slow down the economic development in the short run.
The EU and North and South America are the major players in the biomass market. Brazil became certified sustainable and it attained a position as a major player in biomass trade and is the largest supplier of ethanol for the world market. This has been possible because trade barriers to the import of biomass to the United States and the EU have been removed. The biomass market would grow even faster if big players like the United States, China and India ratify the new Kyoto agreement starting in the year 2013. Energy consumption has grown because decision making of consumers is mainly based on cheap prices. Fast growth in energy consumption has led to the situation where fossil energy sources are becoming scarce, but new renewable energy sources have started to diversify the global energy supply. Palm oil is one of the major biomass products and its production in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brazil fulfils the prevailing loose sustainability requirements.
Most of the biomass production in Africa is not certified as sustainable or secure, but on the other hand in Africa large volumes of biomass are still used locally mainly for cooking and heating. Many investments have been made in bioenergy in regions where the production potential of biomass is high, e.g. in Brazil.
Biomass producers will benefit highly if “Rich global village” comes true. In addition, logistics companies will prosper because large quantities have to be transported from the production regions to the customers. Also global refiners and distributors of biofuels will profit from the market conditions.
The driving forces and the development route of biomass market during the years 2006-2020 show that the market of biomass has grown as fast as possible, with the EU being an example. The status of the biomass market is quite similar to commodity markets, such as the oil market. The main drivers have been dwindling oil resources, the fear of even higher fossil fuel prices and socio-economical impacts of high fossil fuel prices. These factors were the main forces for enhancing large scale and global biomass production and utilisation. There was some uncertainty during the timeframe whether there was enough movement towards biomass utilisation without a high oil price or price peak because of an economically orientated world. In addition to the development of fossil fuel prices, the energy policy including instruments, such as energy taxation, carbon trade, feed-in tariffs and green certificates, can be considered as driving forces of the biomass market. However, most of the energy policy measures have been dumped, except global carbon trade that was needed to enhance the market position and local use of biomass.
Year 2013 as an intermediate stopping point: By the year 2013, the removing of trade barriers of biomass should be well on the way and there should be perceivable signs of development towards a commodity market of biomass.
Scenario 3: the 'Rich local village'
Striving towards self sufficiency and independence from imported energy dominates the energy policy. There has been sustained economic growth, and a high level of technological development has been achieved in several sectors since the year 2006. Environmental and social sustainability have not been the priorities, however they have been taken care of in such a way that economic performance has not been impacted.
High import duties of fossil fuels and other economical incentives for renewable energy have improved the competitiveness of bioenergy and boosted its consumption. A great deal of subsidies have been spent on R&D and investments in bioenergy and other renewable energy technologies for meeting the policy goals. The conditions of this scenario boost the internal production and trade of biomass, because the import of biomass has to compete with subsidised internal biomass resources and products. New local biomass sources have been introduced and they are now widely utilised in energy production.
In energy production, due to availability constraints, the use of local fuels is maximised and all kinds of agricultural by-products, e.g. manure and straw, are used for energy production as well as industrial by-products and forest residues from pre-commercial thinning and final logging. The issues of biodiversity and impacts on soil conditions in the production of biomass are in the background. The price of biomass has increased close to the heavily taxed imported fossil fuels and there is a fierce competition for the limited local biomass resources.
The traditional biomass-based industries, like the forest industry, are coping with stronger competition for raw material than in the past. There has been a significant development in the use of liquid biofuels in the transportation sector in the EU, where biodiesel is the dominating “green” fuel.
Driving forces and development route of biomass market during the years 2006-2020 are largely determined by the aim to sustain economic welfare. Therefore, the economic issues and situation have guided the development of the bioenergy sector, without significant focus on environmental performance. Efficiency has also been recognised only from an economic point of view and that is why all the resources are utilised as efficiently as possible. Protectionism of the internal market is the other dominating characteristic of this scenario.
Without measures of energy policy, the competitiveness and security of the supply of local biomass would not be able to compete with import.
Year 2013 as an intermediate stopping point: by the year 2013, if the world is going towards the “Rich local village”, the EU has given strong preference to its internal market on energy. In addition, imported energy and some biomass products such as ethanol that can be replaced by local products have been subjected to higher import duties. In the “Rich local village” biomass producers, plants and bio-refineries will mostly benefit. Also all sectors of bioenergy (heat, electricity and liquid biofuels etc.) will develop.
Scenario 4: 'Small is beautiful'
Some regions – “the leading communities” – have been more successful in increasing their economic welfare than the rest. The relatively isolated economy and strong internal trade is specific to the communities of this world. To enhance this development, for example in the EU, more independence and power has been allocated to the member states to decide their own energy policies. This has enabled the maximised utilisation of local biomass, solar energy, wind energy and enhanced the competitiveness of local fossil energy sources, as well.
There is a lot of regulation on everything, e.g. the strict regulation for international trade. Therefore, local production is important and due to the lack of international trade the prices of industrial raw material and oil have increased.
In general, the production of agricultural products and energy crops is local. Environment and the effective utilisation of raw-materials have been taken care of profoundly, e.g. more cars are using biofuels in cities and local small-scale renewable energy systems like biofuel fired CHP plants are widely applied. In addition, energy efficient neutral greenhouses are widely in use. Biomass producers and biofuel refineries are mainly local companies. The land area dedicated to biomass production has been increased. Concern about the state of the environment and climate change has led to decreasing primary energy consumption, through energy efficient technologies and measurements such as improved insulation of buildings and energy efficiency of the industrial sector.
In addition, there has been a strong emphasis on promoting public transport systems. Small-scale combined power and heat production has become a commonly utilised competitive technology on a smaller scale than previously. Recycling and reuse of materials has increased remarkably since 2006 and it is implemented on a large scale. The community of this scenario can be called a recycling society. In addition to recycling it has to be decided where to utilise different biomass or other energy sources and where to grow food products.
The production of liquid biofuels is local and it is based on traditional small-scale as well as second generation technologies. The demand for biofuels has increased because of the increased price of oil. The high price of oil has made smaller cars that consume less fuel more popular. The basic idea in this scenario is that the lack of access to cheap external energy sources drives the development of energy market within the communities. The high cost of energy has been one factor that has caused a lack of overall economic growth.
Particularly successful communities which have efficiently utilised their local energy resources, and developed technology in the field of energy efficiency and renewable energy have benefited from the circumstances of this scenario.
Driving forces and development route of biomass markets during the years 2006-2020:
This scenario has mainly been driven by policy and consumers. Together with policy, public opinion and general thinking have been two of the key drivers. Consumers are aware and concerned about the state of the environment which has enormously influenced the development of the bioenergy sector and the actions to enhance it. In addition, the emphasis is on localisation.
When the volume of economy of a community is large enough for self-sufficiently, “Small is beautiful” can be regarded as a rather stable society in terms of the environment and with modest growth in economy and welfare. On the contrary, competition with other economic areas will be severe and without a constant adaptation of policy, after 2040 the future of the “Small is beautiful” society can go shipwrecked again within the international world.
Year 2013 as an intermediate stopping point: if the world looks like “Small is beautiful” in 2020, by the year 2013 first generation biofuels have to be used extensively instead of waiting for the second generation, and attention must be addressed to the current social problems, which may hinder the development. If this scenario comes true, the same businesses as today will succeed, but companies will be smaller. Big companies are no longer in control of the whole energy system, but there is more diversity in energy suppliers. It is necessary to develop and to invest in new and more efficient energy technologies in order to cope with challenges of the diversifying energy supply and improved utilisation of raw materials.
Conclusion
As the scenarios show, bioenergy production and trade can go many different ways. The complexity and multitude of factors involved allows for a range of outcomes: from very large global trades in which the pure, hard logic of economics and profit rules, to the localised, socially sustainable and equitable use of biofuels at the regional level.
We advise the reader to analyse the scenarios in combination with the IEA Bioenergy Task 40 studies on the global potential of biomass production (earlier post), on the sustainability of tropical biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane (earlier post) and on the effects of stringent sustainability criteria on the commercial viability of biofuels and biomass (earlier post).
Read this way, this kind of scenarios offer a useful tool for planners, investors, policy makers, NGOs and, why not, individual consumers, who are faced by a rapidly developing market that is currently quite chaotic. Confusion exists about the real potential of biomass and biofuels, about the effects on food security, the environment and the socio-economic sphere. Studies like this one show that some of the panic around biofuels is totally unfounded, but that on the other hand, a critical assessment of and a longterm view on where this industry is going remains needed more than ever.
More information:
Jussi Heinimö, Virpi Pakarinen, Ville Ojanen and Tuomo Kässi, International Bioenergy Trade - scenario study on international biomass markets in 2020 [*.pdf], Lappeenranta University of Technology, Research Report 181, prepared for the IEA Bioenergy Task 40, 2007.
Biopact: A look at Africa's biofuels potential, July 30, 2006 [showing the IEA Bioenergy Task 40's longterm assessments of global bioenergy production potential].
Article continues
posted by Biopact team at 2:47 PM 2 comments links to this post
